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#871 (permalink)      5/6/2022 2:58:15 PM US Central   quote/reply + tips
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Troepfler
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Troepfler wrote:

Troepfler wrote:
I am watching the ISW map daily since weeks, last map April 24:
ISW map April 24
I dont see any big RU movements in UA direction in the last weeks.
But there are some pointed tactical UA moves in the last weeks, they seem logic.
OK, best informations on the high quality sources.
But when I watch the lower quality sources,
it seems to me, they hype the situation.

There is stable front line since weeks which does not move,
and this front line can last months or years.

There is no need to heavy increase actions by NATO,
just wait and fight the front line.

Today Blinken and Lloyd Austin visited Kiev,
that was again a bad US move, that is no deescalating.
Why, the front lines are stable?
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Now 6 days later, April 30, I see no big changes with the UA/RU front lines.
The ISW map April 29 shows the main war zone.
The main change is in Yampil on the map, the more common village name is Lyman.
NDTV news shows the situation, when RU army is coming close.

On the map, RU tries to go into UA on 8 very small front lines,
these 8 front lines are very far apart from each other,
that will cause bigger RU logistic problems.


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Now 6 days later, May 6, there is still no big change in the front lines.
And that are the same front lines compared to April 24,
It seems RU can not gain one inch or meter, but UA seems to be successful.

Mariupol is an other story, but there are still hard Asow fighters in the underground of the steel plant.

It is amazing, that big RU is stopped by small UA,
and UA wins some counteroffensives,
e.g. see that on the blue parts on the maps.

I think, some other nations helped with lots of missile targeting informations.

The maps are on ISW May 5

Edit: and there was the question who will win in post #855.
I would say UA/RU 70/30, OK, Mariupol and Cherson are lost.


Edited on 5/6/2022 at 3:53 PM (add)
#872 (permalink)      5/6/2022 3:47:19 PM US Central   quote/reply + tips
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javyn
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ship-admiral-makarov-ukraine-war-b2073007.html

Russia’s Admiral Makarov warship has been hit by Ukrainian missiles and burst into flames, according to Ukrainian officials.

The frigate would be Russia’s latest high-profile naval loss in a troubled campaign, coming after reports that US intelligence helped Ukraine locate and sink the Russian warship Moskva weeks ago.

The Makarov was said to have been sailing close to Snake Island in the Black Sea south of Odesa.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Anton Gerashchenko reported on his Telegram page that the Admiral Makarov was hit by a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile. He cited Russian sources.

Russian navy ships stationed in Crimea were sent to help Admiral Makarov, he added.

"But if she bear a maid child, then she shall be unclean two weeks, as in her separation: and she shall continue in the blood of her purifying threescore and six days." (Leviticus 12:5)
#873 (permalink)      5/6/2022 4:16:11 PM US Central   quote/reply + tips
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Troepfler
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javyn wrote:


Russia’s Admiral Makarov warship has been hit by Ukrainian missiles and burst into flames, according to Ukrainian officials.
The frigate would be Russia’s latest high-profile naval loss in a troubled campaign, coming after reports that US intelligence helped Ukraine locate and sink the Russian warship Moskva weeks ago.



And that is perhaps the dangerous point:
UA perhaps will be a playground between RU and US.

Edit: and UA would not be the first battlefield,
where RU and/or US organize games.


Edited on 5/6/2022 at 4:34 PM (add)
#874 (permalink)      5/6/2022 8:04:50 PM US Central   quote/reply + tips
ericbnc
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What does a Russian win look like?

what does a ukrania win look like?
Up (censored by PRC) creek with a 8 inch long piece of fecal matter for a paddle
#875 (permalink)      5/7/2022 11:06:59 AM US Central   quote/reply + tips
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According to ISW news yesterday, it does not look good for RU:

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of Kharkiv city secured further gains in the last 24 hours and may successfully push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv in the coming days.

Ukrainian forces captured several settlements north and east of Kharkiv in the last 24 hours, reducing the ability of Russian forces to threaten Ukraine’s second-largest city.

This Ukrainian operation is developing into a successful, broader counteroffensive—as opposed to the more localized counterattacks that Ukrainian forces have conducted throughout the war to secure key terrain and disrupt Russian offensive operations.

Ukrainian forces are notably retaking territory along a broad arc around Kharkiv rather than focusing on a narrow thrust, indicating an ability to launch larger-scale offensive operations than we have observed so far in the war (as Ukrainian forces predominantly retook the outskirts of Kyiv following Russian withdrawals rather than in a major counteroffensive).

The willingness of Ukrainian forces to concentrate the forces necessary for this scale of offensive operations, rather than deploying these available forces to defenses in eastern Ukraine, additionally indicates the Ukrainian military’s confidence in repelling ongoing Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Severodonetsk area.

While Ukrainian forces are unlikely to directly threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum (as they run further to the east of recent Ukrainian advances), Ukrainian forces may be able to relieve Russian pressure on Kharkiv and possibly threaten to make further advances to the Russian border.

ISW May 6, 5:00 pm ET
#876 (permalink)      5/7/2022 9:01:13 PM US Central   quote/reply + tips
ericbnc
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The boxer feints as the opponent extends...

How is Odessa?
Up (censored by PRC) creek with a 8 inch long piece of fecal matter for a paddle
#877 (permalink)      5/7/2022 9:33:15 PM US Central   quote/reply + tips
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Vapor
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Brilliant military strategy... Continue to send our equipment to Ukraine so that the Russians will deplete their missile supply destroying it...
It is time we stop accepting the things we cannot change, and start changing the things we cannot accept...
#878 (permalink)      5/8/2022 12:44:09 AM US Central   quote/reply + tips
ericbnc
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Vapor wrote:

Brilliant military strategy... Continue to send our equipment to Ukraine so that the Russians will deplete their missile supply destroying it...


Is this our concept of winning?

Up (censored by PRC) creek with a 8 inch long piece of fecal matter for a paddle
#879 (permalink)      5/8/2022 4:15:40 AM US Central   quote/reply + tips
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Troepfler
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ericbnc wrote:

How is Odessa?

Russian forces continued to target Odesa with cruise missile strikes and conduct false-flag attacks in Transnistria over the past several days.
Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported that Russian aircraft launched four cruise missiles at Odesa Oblast (Oblast = engl. Region) on May 7 and two missiles late on May 6 to exert “psychological pressure” on civilians (ISW May 7, 6:45 pm ET).

Btw. Zmiinyi (Snake) Island is far far away.

On the way E to W from e.g. Mariupol to Odessa is the town Mykolaiv (Mykolajiw), very difficult to cross the big river in this region.
RU tried to cross the river since a long time, lots of counterattacks, ISW Mykolaiv map May 7.

Odessa has 2.500 km Catacombs (under the Mariupol Steel Plant are 25 km and none in the town),
see Wiki: Odessa Catacombs
I am not a military specialist, but tunnel systems in this dimension would be perhaps difficult to capture.

#880 (permalink)      5/8/2022 4:17:27 AM US Central   quote/reply + tips
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ptitfour
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where is Albator ?

idiocracy president ?

Edited on 5/8/2022 at 4:18 AM
#881 (permalink)      5/8/2022 1:03:57 PM US Central   quote/reply + tips
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Vapor
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ericbnc wrote:

Is this our concept of winning?



Assume so... Every time I check the Mainstream media they declare how well the Ukraine army is doing repelling Russia... Yet Russia has gained exactly what they went in for... The coast...

It is time we stop accepting the things we cannot change, and start changing the things we cannot accept...